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China's methanol industry is experiencing a "cold winter"
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China's methanol industry is experiencing a "cold winter"

(Summary description)The economic operation situation of China's methanol industry since 2019 is mainly summarized in the following aspects.

China's methanol industry is experiencing a "cold winter"

The economic operation situation of China's methanol industry since 2019 is mainly summarized in the following aspects.

  The economic operation situation of China's methanol industry since 2019 is mainly summarized in the following aspects.

  First, the industrial structure adjustment has achieved positive results. On the one hand, the raw material structure is more prominent with coal as the main raw material. 2019 China's methanol production capacity with coal raw material has reached 67.791 million tons, accounting for 75.4% of the total production capacity, an increase of 9.4 percentage points over 2018; methanol production capacity with natural gas as raw material and the proportion further reduced; methanol production with coke oven gas as raw material, driven by the rebound of the coking industry with some new units put into operation, 2019 Coke oven gas methanol production capacity is 11.506 million tons, accounting for 12.8% of the total capacity, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year.

  On the other hand, the level of industry massification has further increased. 2019 capacity below 100,000 tons/year accounted for only 2.2%; 100,000-300,000 tons/year capacity was 15,616,000 tons/year, accounting for 17.4% of total capacity, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%; capacity above 300,000 tons/year reached 72,336,000 tons/year, accounting for 80.4% of capacity, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% ; in particular, the capacity of coal-based methanol above 600,000 tons/year was 46.04 million tons/year, accounting for 51.2% of the total capacity.

  In addition, the industry's de-capacity work continued to advance,, further optimizing the methanol industry structure. 2019 and part of the backward and old capacity was able to exit, after extensive investigation and mapping, the exit capacity was 1.125 million tons.

  Secondly, the main role of mono-ethanol plant with advanced coal gasification technology is remarkable. Driven by the new coal gasification technology, the level of large-scale, efficient and clean coal-to-ethanol has been significantly improved, becoming an important pillar of the methanol industry, while showing strong market competitiveness.

  Thirdly, the market price has dropped repeatedly. 2017 and 2018 were better years for China's methanol industry, with high downstream demand and high market price. Since 2019, there has been a fundamental change in the methanol market, with prices falling again and again and the overall level much lower than the previous two years. the average price in 2019 was 2116 yuan per ton, nearly 700 yuan lower than that in 2018, a year-on-year decrease of 24.8%. However, since this year, methanol prices are all the way down, falling beyond expectations, with the average ex-factory price from January to June only 1,669 yuan/ton, more than 200 yuan lower than the lowest level in history in 2009, forming an inverse of the cost and selling price of enterprises. Almost the whole industry production enterprises are facing the challenge of cost, some enterprises can not keep cash flow, have no choice but to stop production. The first half of this year's methanol production 34.366 million tons, little change year-on-year, which is also rare, the industry is experiencing a "cold winter".

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