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China's methanol industry is experiencing a 'cold winter'.
Publish Time:
2022-06-25 15:09
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Since 2019, the economic operation of China's methanol industry can be summarized as follows:
First, the industrial structure adjustment has achieved positive results. On the one hand, the raw material structure is more prominent with coal as the main raw material. In 2019, China's methanol production capacity using coal as raw material reached 67.791 million tons, accounting for 75.4% of the total production capacity, an increase of 9.4 percentage points compared with 2018; the methanol production capacity and proportion using natural gas as raw material further decreased; methanol production using coke oven gas as raw material, driven by the recovery of the coking industry, some new devices were put into production, and the production capacity of methanol from coke oven gas in 2019 was 11.506 million tons, accounting for 12.8% of the total production capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%.
On the other hand, the level of industrial scale has been further improved. In 2019, the proportion of production capacity below 100,000 tons/year was only 2.2%; the production capacity of 10-300,000 tons/year was 15.616 million tons/year, accounting for 17.4% of the total production capacity, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year; the production capacity of more than 300,000 tons/year reached 72.336 million tons/year, accounting for 80.4% of the total production capacity, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year; in particular, the coal-based methanol production capacity of more than 600,000 tons/year was 46.04 million tons/year, accounting for 51.2% of the total production capacity.
In addition, the industry's capacity reduction work has continued to advance, further optimizing the methanol industry structure. In 2019, some backward and outdated production capacity was withdrawn. After extensive investigation and摸底, the withdrawn production capacity was 1.125 million tons.
Second, the significant role of single methanol devices using advanced coal gasification technology. Driven by new coal gasification technology, the scale, efficiency, and cleanliness of coal-to-methanol production have been significantly improved, becoming an important pillar of the methanol industry and showing strong market competitiveness.
Third, market prices have fallen repeatedly. 2017 and 2018 were good years for China's methanol industry, with high demand and high market prices. Since 2019, the methanol market has undergone fundamental changes, with prices falling repeatedly, and the overall level is significantly lower than in the previous two years. The average price in 2019 was 2116 yuan/ton, nearly 700 yuan lower than in 2018, a year-on-year decrease of 24.8%. However, since this year, methanol prices have continued to decline, falling below expectations. The average ex-factory price from January to June was only 1669 yuan/ton, more than 200 yuan lower than the historical lowest level in 2009, resulting in an inverted relationship between enterprise costs and selling prices. Almost all production enterprises in the industry are facing cost challenges, some enterprises cannot maintain cash flow, and have to stop production. In the first half of this year, methanol production was 34.366 million tons, with little year-on-year change, which is also rare in history, and the industry is experiencing a "cold winter".
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